CNBC Closing Bell
2026-05-25 · Hosted by Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee, Michael Santoli · CNBC
Executive Summary
Markets closed Friday with the S&P 500 posting its eighth consecutive weekly gain — up 17% (~1,100 points) over that span — and the Dow hitting a record close, even as the 10-year yield pulled back to 4.55% from a high of 4.68% earlier in the week. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Federal Reserve Chairman with President Trump publicly pledging Warsh’s independence. Key discussions center on Fed policy under Warsh, the AI trade rotation (ARM +40%, Intel +10%, Nvidia -4% on the week), and rising oil and food prices impacting consumer sentiment, which fell to a record low. The episode also covers SpaceX-driven space ETF proliferation, Disney’s Star Wars test, and a private markets access debate via Nasdaq’s Polymarket deal.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Markets: Eighth Straight Weekly Gain
Dow up ~300 points to a record close; S&P 500 up small; Russell 2000 best performer for third straight day and week
S&P 500 8-week win streak — best run since end of 2023; up 17% (~1,100 points) over the span
10-year yield: backed off to 4.55% from 4.68% weekly high
Oil: settled at $96/barrel, down 8% on the week on perceived deal progress
Cameron Dawson (New Edge Wealth): bull market in both prices and earnings; put/call ratio at recent lows; institutional positioning shifted from underweight to overweight
2. AI Hardware Rotation — The Week’s Defining Trade
ARM: Arm Holdings — +40% — CPU demand + edge AI devices driving re-rating
AMD: Advanced Micro Devices — +double digits — CPU rebound + AI edge device optimism
INTC: Intel — +~10% — AI data center demand upgrade; seaport upgrades to buy
DELL: Dell Technologies — Record high — Lenovo blowout + Vegas AI factory event; pre-earnings analyst upgrades
HPQ: HP Inc. — +double digits — AI PC optimism; Lenovo read-through
NVDA: Nvidia — -4% on week — Strong quarter failed to impress; “rotation to next wave”
TXN: Texas Instruments — +3.6% — Seaport upgrade to buy citing AI data center power chip demand
REGTI: Rigetti Computing — +~50% WTD — US government $2B quantum investment; IBM gets $1B
3. Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Fed Chair
17th Federal Reserve Chairman sworn in at the White House — first White House ceremony for a Fed chair since Alan Greenspan in 1987
Warsh: “I will lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes”
President Trump: “I want Kevin to be totally independent. Don’t look at me.”
Matt Peterson (CNBC): Warsh likely to eliminate the dot plot starting with June meeting; will scale back regional president communications; has 8.5 years of prepared thinking about these reforms
Committee is divided; Governor Waller said today he could support a rate hike if inflation expectations become unanchored
10-year yield at the highest level for any Fed chair swearing-in since Greenspan
4. Oil & Gas: Memorial Day Price Shock
Gas prices at a four-year high, national average just below $5/gallon target if Strait remains closed
Americans have spent an additional $40 billion on fuel since the war began — $300 per household (Brown University)
US gasoline stocks down for a 14th straight week
Biggest rig count jump since April 2022 this week, but production increases 3–6 months away
Pippa Stevens: even if deal reached, prices won’t return to pre-war $60s due to inventory rebuild and geopolitical risk premium
5. Food Prices & Consumer Sentiment
Ground beef hit a record $6.90/pound; ground beef, steaks, and hot dogs all up double-digit percentages year-over-year
Chicken and egg prices falling year-over-year (bright spots)
Consumer sentiment at record low today
Ron Shake (Kava Chairman): K-shaped economy; restaurant sector navigating mixed signals; Kava at ~$10 billion market cap as dominant Mediterranean chain
6. Nasdaq Private Market × Polymarket Deal
Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) CEO Tom Callahan: launching prediction markets on private companies via exclusive data partnership with Polymarket
Context: number of public companies halved (8,000 → 4,000) over 25 years while unicorns grew from 175 to 1,500
Congressional investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi for potential insider trading on military/election events
Minnesota first state to ban prediction platforms
Trends Identified
1. Rotation Away From Nvidia Is Structural, Not Tactical
The week’s data point — Nvidia down 4% after a strong earnings print while ARM surges 40% and Intel +10% — reflects a market actively seeking the next leverage point in the AI value chain. Santoli’s observation that “Nvidia, that’s so 2020-23” captures the market dynamic: once a stock has been granted a premium valuation, the marginal dollar seeks the next underpriced beneficiary. This rotation dynamic is accelerating as the AI trade matures.
2. New Fed Leadership Creates Policy Ambiguity as a Near-Term Market Variable
Warsh’s reform agenda — potentially eliminating the dot plot, reducing Fed communications, and shifting to balance sheet management over rate moves — introduces genuine uncertainty into markets accustomed to extensive central bank guidance. The divided FOMC (Waller openly supporting hikes) means the June meeting could surprise regardless of direction, and the absence of a dot plot would remove a key anchor for rate expectations.
3. Energy Prices Are the Primary Consumer Stress Test
At $96/barrel oil and near-$5 national gas average, the consumer impact is concrete: record-low sentiment, hotel bookings down 8% for Memorial Day, 40% of lower-income Americans with no travel plans (BofA data), and restaurant companies citing input cost headwinds. If the Iran conflict prolongs, the AI-driven market rally and the consumer economy may diverge in ways that eventually become a macro concern.
4. Private Markets at an Inflection Point
The IPO pipeline (SpaceX, OpenAI, Oura) and the Nasdaq-Polymarket deal reflect a structural shift: the most transformative companies are staying private longer, and the infrastructure for retail access to pre-IPO value creation is being actively built. The risk noted by Santoli — that public investors become exit liquidity with most value already accrued — is a real tension in the current market structure. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Bullishly Extended
Eight consecutive weekly gains, record-low put/call ratios, and institutional re-positioning from underweight to overweight all signal a market with strong momentum but limited margin for negative surprise.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Fed policy pivot uncertainty: Warsh’s reform agenda and divided FOMC (Waller favoring hikes) mean June meeting could surprise in either direction; forward guidance reduction creates information vacuum.
Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure: Iran talks producing “no harm done” signals but no deal; every additional week of closure increases the risk of a supply shock markets have priced as resolved.
Consumer stress from energy prices: Record-low sentiment, $300/household incremental fuel costs, and declining lower-income travel suggest consumer health is weakening beneath the headline market strength.
Post-ceasefire reversion risk: If war ends, money is expected to rotate out of AI infrastructure and into consumer cyclicals; narrow AI trade could face significant rebalancing pressure.
Prediction market regulatory risk: Congressional probes and state-level bans on prediction platforms could disrupt the emerging prediction market ecosystem and its Nasdaq Private Market data partnership.
ETF proliferation and fragility: 466 new ETFs launched YTD; 14,000 globally; thematic ETFs with 0.8–0.9% fees carry high closure risk if assets don’t reach critical mass.
Star Wars franchise fatigue: Disney’s Mandalorian film tracking for lowest Star Wars opening since Lucasfilm acquisition; stakes high for CEO Josh Tamar’s content strategy.
Public investors as exit liquidity: With SpaceX, OpenAI and others staying private until $1 trillion+ valuations, retail investors risk buying the peak of value creation.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-05-25, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.