CNBC Halftime Report
2026-05-04 · Hosted by Scott Wapner · CNBC
Executive Summary
The Halftime Report investment committee debates whether to “buy in May” after the best April since November 2020 — Nasdaq 100 up 16% in April, the best month since October 2002. The case for continued upside rests on 28.8% Q1 earnings growth projected to reach 40s%+ in subsequent quarters and the AI capex super-cycle ($700B from four hyperscalers alone). Apple within 1% of new record high after blowout earnings — China revenue +28%, services at record high, gross margins near 50%, $100B buyback. Intel up 114% in April alone in special situation. NVIDIA up only 14% but still seen as core. Energy CEOs (Exxon/Chevron) reaffirm capital discipline despite oil at $100. Trump pessimistic on Iran negotiations late in show.
Key Stories & Changes
1. April Performance Recap
S&P 500: Best month since November 2020 — Record highs
NASDAQ 100: +16% — Best month since October 2002
NASDAQ Composite: Best month since April — Continuation of momentum
Bitcoin: $60K → $78-80K — Retail risk-on signal
2. Q1 Earnings Snapshot
Q1 earnings growth: 28.8% (vs. 14% expected at start of year)
Q2 projected in the 40s%
2025 had double-digit earnings growth — unprecedented to expect two years in a row
Year-end S&P EPS growth projection now ~19% (up from 15% at year-start)
Tech driving the upgrades
3. Apple Earnings — Within Whisker of Record High
Stock within 1% of new record high intra-day
China revenue +28%
Services at record high; gross margins 49.3%
New $100B buyback announced
Dividend hike
iPhone 17 one of best-selling phones in history
New CEO John Ternus mentioned “incredible roadmap ahead”
Apple spent only ~$6B on capex in quarter while announcing buyback
Eric Woodring (Morgan Stanley) hiked target to $330; Dan Ives keeps $350
Forward PE ~33.5 vs. 10-year average of 22.5 (concern from Barclays — keep underweight)
Bull case: services as profit generator; AI strategy through partnerships not in-house
4. Semiconductor April Performance
INTC: Intel — +114% (special situation)
ASTR: Astera Labs — +78%
AMD: AMD — +74%
MRVL: Marvell — +67%
MU: Micron — +53%
QCOM: Qualcomm — +39%
ARM: Arm — +39%
AVGO: Broadcom — +35%
AMAT: Applied Materials — +15%
NVDA: NVIDIA — +14%
5. Hyperscaler CapEx Picture
Four companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) committing ~$700B in CapEx for AI build-out in just one year
Capex projected to grow further into 2027
Meta spending 100% of free cash flow (likely turning negative)
Amazon spending 100% of free cash flow
Alphabet aggressively investing while expanding margins
Concerns center on demand absorption and energy capacity constraints
6. Mag 7 Earnings Dispersion
Alphabet — clear winner; cloud growth standout, TPUs showing competitive threat to NVIDIA
Amazon — strong winner; AWS Trainium adoption
Microsoft — question marks remain
Meta — questions about ad targeting AI monetization timing
Apple — see above; differentiated story
7. Energy Earnings — Discipline Theme
XOM (Exxon): Beat; CEO says ~15% production impacted by Iran war; emphasizes shareholder returns
CVX (Chevron): Beat; CFO quote — “our strategy is to grow free cash flow not grow production”
Neither raising CapEx despite oil at $100 — unprecedented decade-long shift in industry behavior
Exxon trading at ~15x earnings, ~3% dividend yield, 15% off the high — Lavinthal call to buy
Marathon Petroleum mentioned as similar
8. Other Committee Trades
HOOD: Robinhood — Bought dip at $72 — Worst week since early February; Simpson long-term
EBAY: eBay — Citizens JMP raised to $120 — Lavinthal bullish; collectibles, precious metals
CAT: Caterpillar — Multiple target hikes (highest $1,165) — Best day yesterday since October
PSTG: Paramount Skydance — Morgan Stanley double upgrade — Bullish on Warner Bros deal
9. Trump Iran Comments (Late in Show)
Trump pessimistic on Iran negotiations: “Iranians asking for things he can’t agree to… not sure they’ll ever get there”
Confirmed China trip next week
Said US driving “tough deal” on Spirit Airlines
Susie Wiles had “very good meeting with Anthropic”
Trends Identified
1. Earnings Validation of AI Capex Thesis
The investment committee broadly converges on the view that Q1 earnings season was the “make” moment for hyperscaler AI spending — the demand is real, demand outstrips supply, and capex is justified through 2027. The narrative has shifted from “are they overspending?” to “can they spend enough?” The chip buyers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) sucking up everything that NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom can ship.
2. Apple’s Capital-Light AI Strategy Vindicated
Apple’s restraint on AI capex (~$6B/quarter vs. Mag 7 peers spending tens of billions) combined with strong iPhone 17 cycle, China rebound, and services growth has set up the stock for outperformance. The strategy of using existing LLMs through partnerships rather than building proprietary models is working — for now. Investors have given Apple time and the company has used it well.
3. Don’t Fight Momentum
The committee’s universal advice: don’t try to fade the chip momentum. Wolf Research’s “extremely painful” warning resonates. Even Intel up 114% in a month gets a “hold” recommendation from Kevin Simpson — let the trade run, watch for momentum down-tick, then trim.
4. Energy Industry Maturation
Both Exxon and Chevron CEOs explicitly resist Trump’s “drill baby drill” call, prioritizing free cash flow growth over production growth. This represents a decade-plus structural shift from the boom-bust 2010s. Combined with Iran-driven oil shock, sets up sustained multi-quarter benefit to disciplined operators.
5. Sentiment Has Shifted from Hope to Validation
After hopes pre-earnings that the AI trade would hold, the committee describes April as “true validation” — earnings exceeded even highest expectations, oil didn’t crack $200, AI trade held, no worst-case Middle East scenario. Setup is now about whether momentum continues or normalizes. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Strongly Bullish
The committee leans toward “buy in May not sell in May” with Wapner getting unanimous bullish responses on the framing question.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Iran Negotiation Failure: Trump explicitly pessimistic; “not sure they’ll ever get there.”
Semiconductor Overextension: Multiple chips up 50-100% in a month; momentum trade vulnerability.
Apple Valuation Premium: Forward PE at 33.5 vs. 10-year average of 22.5; Barclays maintains underweight.
Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Pressure: Meta and Amazon spending 100% of FCF; duration risk if AI demand softens.
Oil Higher-for-Longer: Could create eventual demand destruction or pass-through to consumer inflation.
NVIDIA Competitive Pressure: Alphabet TPUs and Amazon Trainium gaining mindshare; demand may distribute.
Multiple Compression Already Done: P/E down ~2 turns; further upside requires either earnings beats or expansion.
Tariff Escalation: Trump signaling continued protectionist stance; auto tariffs raised to 25% on EU.
Energy Capacity Wall: Mention by Lavinthal that AI capex eventually hits power infrastructure limits.
Anthropic/White House Dynamic: Susie Wiles meeting with Anthropic — uncertain trajectory.
Spirit Airlines Workout: US driving “tough deal” — outcome uncertain; jobs at risk.
Bitcoin Risk-On Signal: $80K bitcoin sometimes precedes broader market frothiness.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-05-04, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.