CNBC The Exchange
2026-05-13 · Hosted by Kelly Evans · CNBC
Executive Summary
The Exchange focused on the sharp pullback in chip and memory names — Qualcomm down nearly 15%, its worst day in more than six years, with Micron, Intel, and SanDisk all off 10%+ — amid the South Korea AI dividend tax story and a hotter April CPI print. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, its highest since last July, after a soft 10-year auction graded C-minus. Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers raised the Nvidia target to $315 calling for $10 trillion potential. JPMorgan Wealth’s Phil Camporeale countered the “Nacho” narrative (No Chance Hormuz Opens) by arguing the US is well-insulated from oil shocks. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management said the long-term AI trade has 5 more years to run but trimmed memory exposure recently. Sam Altman testified Musk made “hair-raising” demands for control of OpenAI. President Trump departed for China making lengthy remarks defending the Iran war and inflation outcomes.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Memory and Chip Stocks Crater
QCOM: Qualcomm — -15% intraday — Worst day in 6+ years
MU: Micron — -12% in week / -10%+ today — Up 80% in last 3 months
INTC: Intel — -10%+ — Doubled in past month
SNDK: SanDisk — Sharp loss — Memory selloff
NVDA: Nvidia — -1.5% — Defensive within chips; Wells Fargo target $315
SOX still up ~60% YTD even after today’s pullback
On track for second-best first half ever
Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers modeling 11% above street for FY2028 Nvidia data center revenue; 15% above for FY2029
2. 10-Year Treasury Auction and Yields
$42 billion 10-year auction; graded C-minus by Rick Santelli
Yield 4.468%, ~0.5bp tail
10-year closing at 4.45% — highest yield close since last July
30-year auction tomorrow ($25B)
10-year UK gilt at 5.13%, highest since 2008 (Tuesday peak)
3. CPI Shelter Component Quirk
April shelter index up 0.6% MoM — unexpectedly elevated
Diana Olick explained: government shutdown caused October reading to be unchanged on rolling 6-month basis
April measurement essentially captured 12 months of growth instead of 6
Apartment rents up 0.5% MoM but down 1.7% YoY (lowest annual growth since 2017)
Rents down 5% from 2022 pandemic peak
Andy Walden (ICE): April home price growth strongest in nearly two years; rates dropped to 5.95% recently then back up to 6.35%+
4. Sam Altman Testimony
Altman called Musk’s demands for OpenAI control “hair-raising”
Said Musk wanted 90% equity stake at one point
Musk had “zero percent chance” view of OpenAI’s success
Tesla-OpenAI merger discussed multiple times
Cross-examination focus: Altman’s personal investments
OpenAI IPO road show expected this year
5. Trump Departs for China
Trump made extensive remarks at White House South Lawn before departure
Said Iran “very much under control” — not a discussion topic
Defended Iran war: “we said we’re going to take the greatest stock market in history and we’re going to go down a little bit”
Acknowledged stock market at record despite Hormuz closure
Said red line for ceasefire violation: “We’ll be thinking about that on the flight”
Said Iran’s navy, air force, anti-aircraft, radar, and leaders “all gone”
6. Tariff Court Update
Section 232 tariffs (10% across the board) allowed to remain during appeals process
Court of International Trade had ruled them unlawful (narrow ruling for plaintiffs only)
Trump administration appealed; Federal Circuit paused the lower court ruling
Plaintiffs have 7 days to respond; government has 3 days after
7. CIBO Volatility Activity
Retail traders buying calls in big tech at fastest 10-day clip since COVID
Nasdaq 100 call (1 standard deviation out of money) price near 3-year high
Today: stock-specific volatility and index volatility normalizing
VIX call buyers from last week getting paid as hedges activated
8. AI Dividend Tax Korean Context
KOSPI down as much as 8% intraday, closed down ~2%
Top presidential policy official floated citizen’s dividend funded by AI profits
Walked back as personal opinion
JP Morgan raised KOSPI bull case to 10,000 (25% upside)
Tim Seymour: “Samsung at 6x for 2027 is the cheapest company in the world of its size and importance”
Trends Identified
1. The Memory Trade’s End Is Visible But Not Imminent
Gene Munster’s clearest framework: memory companies still trade at 7-8x forward earnings — the same multiple as a year ago — yet Micron is up 700%, meaning earnings have moved equally fast. The market is pricing in cyclicality, but if AI demand persists, that multiple should re-rate to 25x. Bottom line: even bears acknowledge fundamentals justify current levels, but everyone is watching for the turn.
2. Power Buildout as Underappreciated AI Theme
Munster highlighted that US power output grew 7% annually from 1958-1975 but essentially zero from 2000-2025. Projects 3% annual growth for the next decade — about 35% more power by 2036. This translates into a slow but durable energy theme. Memory index up 60% in 6 weeks vs energy stocks up only 11% — significant catch-up potential.
3. Iran War as Inflation Catalyst, Not Catastrophe
Phil Camporeale’s contrarian framing: 70+ days of Hormuz closure with gas prices up 50% in NJ, yet S&P at all-time high up 8% since the war started. Sixth straight quarter of double-digit S&P earnings growth (Q1 tracking +19%) is “the signal” rather than the geopolitical noise. Gas prices would need to average $5 (currently ~$4.50) to offset the Big Beautiful Bill Act stimulus.
4. Shelter Inflation’s Statistical Quirk
The CPI shelter spike was partly artificial — government shutdown distortion of the rolling six-month methodology. Underlying apartment rents are actually down 1.7% YoY (lowest since 2017). However, mortgage rates spiked back up at war start, undoing the early-spring affordability improvement that drove April’s strongest home price growth in nearly two years.
5. Retail Call-Buying Frenzy Reminiscent of COVID
Big tech call-buying at fastest 10-day pace since COVID era, with Nasdaq 100 call prices at 3-year highs. Today’s volatility normalization “paid” hedgers buying VIX calls — suggesting some institutional positioning anticipated today’s reversal. Mag 10 (Mag 7 + AMD + Palantir + Broadcom) seeing extreme retail aggression. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Re-pricing Risk Without Capitulation
Today felt more like a healthy reset than a regime change — speakers consistently noted long-term constructiveness alongside short-term caution, particularly on memory and chip valuations.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Memory cycle reversal: Gene Munster trimming; multiples expansion may not last
Bond yield resumption: 4.45% 10-year close highest since last July; soft C-minus auction
Gas prices: Would need to average $5 for rest of year to offset stimulus benefit
Mortgage rate spike: Up 40bps from spring low; buying power -4%
OpenAI corporate governance: Altman’s “hair-raising” testimony; congressional probes
Iran war prolongation: Trump unwilling to define ceasefire red line
Tariff legal uncertainty: Section 232 may yet be struck down
Retail call-buying froth: Fastest 10-day pace since COVID a contrarian signal
Service inflation stickiness: Goolsbee’s “non-energy price increases” the most concerning
Concentrated Asian market risk: Two companies = 40% of KOSPI index
Power capacity constraint: 3% annual growth still leaves 65% gap by 2036
Trump-Xi summit unpredictability: No clear deliverable
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-05-13, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.